In the currently divided Congress, lawmakers in both parties have found it difficult to advance legislation, with Republicans maintaining a narrow majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate split 51 to 49 in favor of Democrats.
As November’s elections approach, however, political analysts point to a number of factors that signal the GOP could very easily reclaim control of the upper chamber.
Iowa State University political science professor Dave Peterson, for example, recently said that the slate of senators either facing re-election or retiring after the current term is advantageous for the minority party.
.@Polymarket – Which party will control the U.S. Senate after the 2024 election?
Republicans 72% (+44)
Democrats 28%https://t.co/vuu5sxxK1Q pic.twitter.com/xw9YS0zvcA— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) February 21, 2024
“This is a good map for Republicans,” he said. “There’s a long way to go and a lot of other primaries out there that could hurt them, but I think this is a good year for them.”
For starters, Democrats will be defending nearly two dozen Senate seats this year — more than twice as many as Republicans. At least a few of those seats are in states where the GOP has an inherent electoral advantage, including Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia.
While Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has been able to maintain his seat despite the state’s Republican leanings, he will be retiring at the end of his current term and is expected to be succeeded by a Republican, namely former Gov. Jim Justice.
Furthermore, in the blue states where Republicans will be defending seats, party insiders believe they have put forward a slate of candidates likely to appeal to a wide swath of voters, including former Gov. Larry Hogan in Maryland and businessman Tim Sheehy in Montana.
All in all, concluded Sonoma State University political science professor David McCuan, “Democrats are unable to expand the map” and are likely on track to lose their majority.
“So fundamentally, at base, Democrats are in a protect mode, and Republicans are in an expansive mode,” he said. “Republicans remain on offense.”
Forecasts are somewhat less conclusive in the House, however, where the Republican majority shrank even further after ousted ex-Rep. George Santos (R-NY) was replaced by a Democrat in a recent special election.
Nevertheless, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) expressed optimism about his party’s chances.
“There is a fervor among the American people, and it is bipartisan,” he said following the special election. “People know that this country is on the wrong track.”
