In a poll this October by McLaughlin and Associates, respondents were asked: “Now, if the 2024 Presidential election were held today, which one of the following best describes how you would vote in the general election for President between Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, and Kamala Harris, the Democrat candidate, for whom would you vote?”
Among respondents who listed their ethnicity as Hispanic, 6% were undecided on the question, 38% picked the vice president, and an incredible 56% said they would vote for former President Donald Trump to have a second term starting in 2025.
These polling results are to be taken with a grain of salt because they are from a polling firm that works with Republican campaigns and asks “push polling” questions on its surveys, skewing poll results.
Still, there’s no denying that Donald Trump made gains among Latino voters in the 2020 election over the number and percentage of Latinos who turned out to vote for Donald Trump in the 2016 election. Covering the immigration beat for Vox, Nicole Narea warned after the election that “Democrats can’t afford to take Latino voters for granted.”
A report from a Democratic data analyst said they found the Latino vote increased by 31 percent from 2016 to the 2020 elections, comprising 10% of voters in the last election. Furthermore, while an estimated 61% supported Joe Biden, Donald Trump managed to gain 8% more of the Latino vote than he took in 2016.
While Democratic politicians make every effort to pander to Latino voters, and at the same time that it seems many Republican politicians don’t miss an opportunity to alienate them, many Latinos may have more in common with the values of the typical Republican voter, or GOP-sympathizing independent voter, than they do with Democrats.
Generally speaking, Latinos are Roman Catholic and devout in their religion, so they are pro-life on abortion and keep their focus on the family. Because of the recent migrant experience in so many Latino families, they think generationally, believe in meritocracy, the overriding value of a good work ethic, and live modestly while working hard to keep moving up.
These are conservative values. How is it that Donald Trump should appeal to so many more Latinos in 2020 when he’s arguably the ringleader of GOP antagonism to Latinos? They might be on the level with Trump’s rhetorical masculinity and that Trump ended up deporting fewer immigrants than his predecessor in substance.
Also, Jonathan Swan has an interesting theory at Axios, that Democrats are losing Latino voters to the GOP and even Donald Trump because of their investment in a Covid hysteria that many Latinos aren’t buying into.