Breitbart Economics Editor John Carney told Fox Business’ Larry Kudlow that the latest economic data shows a “slide towards recession happening across the economy.”
The nation is moving towards recession, numbers show, and it’s not far down the road. The combination of lagging holiday retail sales, weak producer price index, and softness in manufacturing adds up to tough times ahead for the American consumer.
— NEWSMAX (@NEWSMAX) January 17, 2023
Carney pointed toward new data from the New York Fed’s manufacturing survey. He described the trend as falling “off a cliff” and at a much worse rate than anyone expected. Manufacturing went from -11.2 down to -32.9, which the Breitbart editor described as a “wreck.”
He also predicted that January numbers may get worse.
Carney’s less-than-rosy forecast is shared by many in the economic sector, and predictions are increasingly for a rough start to the new year.
Retail sales figures also showed a startling slide through the 2022 holiday season, falling lower in progression from October through December. Carney pointed towards the coming Philadelphia Fed survey, which covers the largest span and “best reflects what’s going on around the country.”
If the downward spiral, he explained, is largely confined to New York, it could indicate that recession is further down the road.
The expert was initially swayed by continued strong labor market numbers, which pointed him toward predicting a recession in the second half of 2023. That changed, however, with new data showing that the looming economic downturn may be much closer to reality.
Writing for his Wednesday Breitbart Business Digest newsletter, Carney addressed the slumping retail sales figures as another indicator of the improbability of an economic “soft landing.” Hopes for a tame exit to this period of record inflation are fading fast.
Replacing those hopes are convictions that there are troubled economic times approaching. New figures show a large drop in consumer demand, which of course is the ultimate engine that drives the economy.
Business-to-business sales are in decline, and both industrial production and manufacturing output are sinking at a faster-than-anticipated rate.
When asked by Kudlow about the direction the Federal Reserve should take in light of the new data, Carney was clear. The current hawkish approach by the central bank to fighting inflation is still the best way to attack skyrocketing prices.
The Breitbart editor cautioned the Fed to not get ahead of itself and believe that inflation is conquered. Numbers are improving, but this same bounce has happened in the past, only to see white-hot inflation come roaring back.